تحولات سوریه (1) تحلیل و پیگیری تحولات سوریه (1)

[ya_ali 421]

جناب سناپس ظاهرا در فاز منفی بینی فرو رفته اید .چند نکته را عرض میکنم:
1- ما کرد ها نافمان را با عشق علی (ع) و ابوالفضل(ع)بریده اند .چه شیعه و چه سنی.
2-لهجه کردی یکی از گویشهای زبان ایرانی(اصطلاحا زبان فارسی) است .اکثریت قریب به اتفاق واژه های کردی و فارسی مشترک هستند و با کمی دقت و آشنائی قابل درک هستند.مانند گیلکی و فارسی و لری و فارسی و.....
3-در اقوام اینجانب شیعه و سنی وجود دارد و با هم هیچ مشکلی نداریم.با جناق من سنی است . اصلا افکار جدائی طلبانه در ایل و تبار ما و سایر طوایفی کردی که میشناسم ،تا کنون ندیده ام.البته تفکرات خود مختاری آنهم در اقلیت وجود داشته است که البته مورد تایید همه نبود .که در اوایل انقلاب هم دیدیم مورد حمایت اکثریت مردم کرد قرار نگرفت.
4-در سفر چند سال قبل مقام معظم رهبری به کردستان که حقیر در معیت معظم له حضور داشتم ،از نزدیک عشق و علاقه بی شائبه مردم جای جای کردستان را به ایشان شاهد بودم.
5-مردم کردستان خود را ایرانی اصیل میدانند.
6-طی بیست سال اخیر وضعیت مردم کردستان تحول چشمگیری پیدا کرده است .
7- در ایران بازارخرده فروشی سوپر مارکتها دست هموطنان آذری است و بازار میوه و تره بار تقریبا دارد دست کردستانی ها قرار میگیرد.
8-مردم کرد بسیار مهمان نواز و بی شیله و پیله وحتی ساده دل هستند و به همین دلیل برخی اوائل انقلاب فریب ضد انقلاب را خوردند.
9-زمان جنگ خود از نزدیک وابستگی و علاقه کردهای عراق به ایران را شاهد بودم . جریان عملیات والفجر 10و استقبال مردم حلبچه از رزمندگان اسلام ،و انتقام صدام با حمله شیمیائی به آنان شاهد قول من است. ویرایش شده در دی 92 توسط ya_ali

[senaps 12,003]

لهجه‌ی کردی؟!‌ ؟؟؟؟؟ هیچ جای دنیا کردی رو لهجه صدا نمی‌زنن!! شما چهارتا کرمانشاهی دیدی که مثلا به خیال خودشون کردی حرف میزنن به این نتیجه رسیدی کردی یه لهجه‌س...
شما که فکر میکنی کردی یه لهجه‌س دیگه چیزی نداریم که بگیم....
بازم میگم، ای کاش این مطالب به تاپیکی در خصوص کردستان منتقل بشه که مخل موضوع تاپیک نشه...

به هر صورت، دقیقا اینکه شما تو فامیلتون شیعه و سنی دارید، ادامه دهنده‌ی همون صحبت من هستش که گفتم کرد ها بر اساس مذهب تصمیم نمیگیرن که مثلا ما سنی هستیم اونا شیعه پس فلان و بهمان!!...

تفکرات جدایی طلبانه در کردستان ایران، هیچ جای بخصوصی نداره بین اکثریت!... بلکه چیزی که جای خاصی داره، حسادت به پیشرفت های کردستان همسایه هستش که با سرعت برق داره میره جلو.... کلی مهندس و کارگر از اینجا میرن اونجا...
کردستان ایران، وضع سابقش این بود که هیچی نداشت! مردم زیر کاهگل زندگی میکردن، الان زیر چیزی که بشه بهش گفت خونه! ولی نه کار هست نه پیشرفت!!...

بحث اینکه نافشون با کدوم امام بسته شده یا نشده هم ربطی نداره...! ... اصولا قرار نیست فکر کنیم اگر کردهای ایران از ایران جدا بشن، مثلا دیگه دین یا مذهبشون رو فراموش میکنن!

درخواست دارم مدیران یا پست ها رو از بین ببرن، یا منتقل بکنن به تاپیکی در خصوص کردستان که بتونیم حرف بزنیم! ....

[pckho0r 3,022]

این بشکه های انفجاری خیلی شبیه و هم سایز ابگرمکن هستند! شاید یکی از کارخانجات ابگرمکن سازی سوریه رو تغییر کاربری داده باشند!

[beyro 476]

[quote]هجه کردی یکی از گویشهای زبان ایرانی(اصطلاحا زبان فارسی) است .اکثریت قریب به اتفاق واژه های کردی و فارسی مشترک هستند و با کمی دقت و آشنائی قابل درک هستند.مانند گیلکی و فارسی و لری و فارسی و...
!.
[/quote]
[size=6][color=#FF0000]لهجه کوردی!![/color][/size]
[img]http://gallery.military.ir/albums/userpics/10226/1538736_182897498574096_821761880_n.jpg[/img]
.
[quote]

5-مردم کردستان خود را ایرانی اصیل میدانند
[/quote]
و البته ایران رو هم به کرد میشناسند و من افتخار میکنم اصیلترین نژاد ایرانی هستم

[quote]در مورد بافت جمعیتی کردها در 4 کشور ایران ترکیه سوریه و عراق باید به چند نکته توجه کرد:[/quote]
دیدی اصلا نمیدونی کرد چیه!! غرب استان همدان شمال استان لرستان و شمال خراسان هم اکثریت کرد هستند و ارومیه هم که کرد نشین...
اقا از بحث ها نکنید تازه اخطارمون پاک شده ولمون کنید جان مادرتان

[hosm 5,921]

[color=#000000][font='Traditional Arabic'][size=5][b]وَ مِنْ آياتِهِ خَلْقُ السَّماواتِ وَ الْأَرْضِ وَ اخْتِلافُ أَلْسِنَتِکُمْ وَ أَلْوانِکُمْ إِنَّ في‏ ذلِکَ لَآياتٍ لِلْعالِمينَ[/b][/size][/font][/color]
[b][font=georgia,serif][size=5]يا أَيُّهَا النّاسُ إِنّا خَلَقناكُم مِن ذَكَرٍ وَأُنثىٰ وَجَعَلناكُم شُعوبًا وَقَبائِلَ لِتَعارَفوا ۚ إِنَّ أَكرَمَكُم عِندَ اللَّهِ أَتقاكُم ۚ إِنَّ اللَّهَ عَليمٌ خَبيرٌ[/size][/font][/b]

[font=lucida sans unicode,lucida grande,sans-serif]از دوستان عزیز خواهش می کنم بحثهای نژادی نکنند. اختلاف رنگ پوست و نژاد و زبان و قوم و ... نشانه های خداوند است و "بهترین شما نزد خدا با تقوی ترین شماست"[/font]

از نظر تاریخی و فرهنگی هم ایران بزرگ، شامل اقوام و زبانهای مختلفی است و همین تفاوتها مایه پیشرفت، عمق فرهنگی و زیبایی کشورمان شده.

ضمنا از نظر زبان شناسی، تا جایی که بنده اطلاع دارم، کردی یک زبان است نه لهجه، احتمالا اشتباه دوستان در لهجه نامیدن آن، به علت کثرت کلمات مشترک با فارسی و مشترک بودن ریشه دو زبان کردی و فارسی در دوران قبل از اسلام است. البته در کشور ما به اشتباه حتی به زبان ترکی نیز لهجه می گویند. بنابراین دوستان کرد خیلی به دل نگیرند (بنده خودم ترک ایرانی هستم)

[reza2250 951]

این بشکه های انفجاری چیه قضیش؟
چه نقاطی میریزنش؟
چطور عمل میکنه؟
از راه دور فعال میشه یا بعد از برخورد به زمین منفجر میشه؟

[aminor 55,091]

تصویر منتسب به بالگرد ارتش حامل بشکه های انفجاری

[url="http://gallery.military.ir/albums/userpics/10218/000000555.jpg"][img]http://gallery.military.ir/albums/userpics/10218/thumb_000000555.jpg[/img][/url]

هر جا رو که دوست داشته باشن میزن الخصوص مناطق مسکونی رو نوع مخروطیش که مخصوص نابود کردن ساختمانهاست



نحوهی عملکرد شون در صفحات قبل توضیح داده شده یه 70 80 صفحه رو برو عقب ویرایش شده در دی 92 توسط aminor

[hosm 5,921]

[quote name='reza2250' timestamp='1387909399' post='355563']
این بشکه های انفجاری چیه قضیش؟
چه نقاطی میریزنش؟
چطور عمل میکنه؟
از راه دور فعال میشه یا بعد از برخورد به زمین منفجر میشه؟
[/quote]

ظاهرا فیوز تاخیری داره
از بالگرد ولش میکنن میافته پایین.
مدل هواپیماش رو نمیدونم
عکسش تو سایت هست ولی یادم نیست کجا بود

[death-white 1,128]

[right]بی خود بر سر ایران دعوا نکنید[/right]
[right]تمام ایران میشه جزو حومه ی آبادان[/right]
[right]البته تاریخ دانان کل کره زمین رو حومه آبادان اعلام کردن[/right]
[right]آابادانی ها اجازه نمیدن ذره ای از خاکشون کم بشه[/right]
[right]قبلا هم ثابت شده این موضوع[/right]
[right]ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ[/right]
[right]خاک بر سر فلسطینیها که اسراییل رو ول کردن اومدن با سوریها میجنگن[/right]
[right]بجون خودم یه روز ما مجبور میشیم با همین فلسطینیها بصورت مستقیم بجنگیم[/right]

[Persian_ranger 1,859]

[quote name='aminor' timestamp='1387909893' post='355567']
تصویر منتسب به بالگرد ارتش حامل بشکه های انفجاری

[url="http://gallery.military.ir/albums/userpics/10218/000000555.jpg"][img]http://gallery.military.ir/albums/userpics/10218/thumb_000000555.jpg[/img][/url]

هر جا رو که دوست داشته باشن میزن الخصوص مناطق مسکونی رو نوع مخروطیش که مخصوص نابود کردن ساختمانهاست



نحوهی عملکرد شون در صفحات قبل توضیح داده شده یه 70 80 صفحه رو برو عقب
[/quote]
اینا چرا اینقد ارتفاع پایین پرواز میکنن؟؟؟
همین کارهارو میکنن فله ای هواگردهاشون و میکشن پایین دیگه!!!

[iMosi 9,456]

5 کیلومتر از زمین فاصله داره موقع رها کردن بشکه...این عکس زمان پرواز از معامل دفاع گرفته شده...

[Persian_ranger 1,859]

دوستان یه سوالی دارم. اگه اشتباه نکنم میل 17 یه رمپی پشتش داره درسته؟؟؟
نمیشه بشکه هارو ببرن داخل هلیکوپتر بعدا در ارتفاع بالا از طریق رمپ با یه مکانیزمی این بشکه هارو تخلیه کنن؟؟؟
فکر کنم اینجوری تعداد بیشتری جا بگیره! ویرایش شده در دی 92 توسط Persian_ranger

[crazy-doctor 7,023]

[quote name='aminor' timestamp='1387909893' post='355567']
تصویر منتسب به بالگرد ارتش حامل بشکه های انفجاری

[url="http://gallery.military.ir/albums/userpics/10218/000000555.jpg"][img]http://gallery.military.ir/albums/userpics/10218/thumb_000000555.jpg[/img][/url]

هر جا رو که دوست داشته باشن میزن الخصوص مناطق مسکونی رو نوع مخروطیش که مخصوص نابود کردن ساختمانهاست



نحوهی عملکرد شون در صفحات قبل توضیح داده شده یه 70 80 صفحه رو برو عقب
[/quote]
این تصویر احتمالا دستکاری شده است کلا سایه های تصویر ( دیوار و هلیکوپتر و بشکه ها ) زیاد به هم نمیخونه .....

[ya_ali 421]

[quote name='senaps' timestamp='1387907382' post='355556']
لهجه‌ی کردی؟!‌ ؟؟؟؟؟ هیچ جای دنیا کردی رو لهجه صدا نمی‌زنن!! شما چهارتا کرمانشاهی دیدی که مثلا به خیال خودشون کردی حرف میزنن به این نتیجه رسیدی کردی یه لهجه‌س...
شما که فکر میکنی کردی یه لهجه‌س دیگه چیزی نداریم که بگیم....

[/quote]ببین جناب آقای سناپس اینجانب به اندازه سن شما برادر بزرگوار راجع به تاریخ و فرهنگ ونژاد و زبان های باستانی ایران در کتب قدیمی و جدید مطالعه کرده ام واز آنجا که خود کرد هستم ،فکر میکنم بتوانم اندکی نظر بدهم.مثلی میزنم:اگر به کتیبه های باستانی ایرانی مثلا آنجا که داریوش(دارا)خود را معرفی میکند بجای کلمه "من"(این من) میگوید "ایمه "و ما کرد ها هم همین را میگوئی مثلا در گویش مازندرانی و یا گیلکی وقتی میخواهند بگویند "برو" میگویند بشو و در کردی میگویند "بچو" و در فارسی قدیم هم میگفتند "بشو"و واژه"شدن "معتی رفتن نیز میداد و قس علی هذا.
شما حق دارید این تاپیک جای این بحث ها نیست و البته اینجانب نیز وقت و حوصله این بحث ها را ندارم و از شما نیز خواهش میکنم کما فی السابق همان نگرش مثبت بینی خود را اعمال بفرمائید.

[HHL 1,472]

این هم یک مقاله کامل درباره بشکه های انفجاری که فکر کنم پاسخ اکثر سوالات دوستان در اون باشه که به دلیل فیلتر بودن منابع مجبور به انتقال کامل آن بودم...


[b] Syria's Barrel Bomb Technology Relative To Aleppo Syria Attacks - The Good, The Bad And The Ugly[/b]




[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left][url="http://www.linkedin.com/pub/richard-lloyd/31/120/628"]Richard M. Lloyd[/url], Warhead Technology Consultant at Tesla Laboratory Inc. takes a look at the DIY barrel bombs used in Syria.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left][b]Introduction[/b]
The Syrian government over the last year has supplemented their traditional conventional air campaign with cheap weapons that have been referred to as Barrel Bombs (BB). These Do It Yourself (DIY) weapons are derived from low cost cylinders that are filled with explosive, fuel and irregular shaped steel fragments. These DIY bombs are manually deployed by soldiers from Russian HIP helicopters. The idea is these helicopters can roam around Syrian neighbourhoods and drop these weapons with more accuracy then firing aircraft rockets. The purpose of this paper is provide some fundamental frame work of how these bombs work, while exploring the myths and false information that has been associated with these weapons.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left][b]Initial Barrel Bomb Technology[/b][/left][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]The main objective of the Syrian barrel bomb program is to provide cheap and lethal damage effects on urban areas in Syria. When these bombs were initially developed they were deployed from HIP helicopters from low altitudes. These low altitude deployments would ensure the barrel bombs could maintain pin point accuracy and damage specific targets that the Syrian government wanted to kill. However, over time the Syrian rebels acquired Man Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) weapons that deterred these low launched bombings and drove the Syrian government to drop these bombs from altitudes near 7000ft. A description of[/left][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]a Syrian Helicopter that has been shot down from a rebel who fired a MANPADS missile is shown in figure 1.[/left][/size][/font][/color]

[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][img]http://upload7.ir/images/04524293313380519199.jpg[/img][/center][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b]Figure 1 Syrian Helicopter Shot Down With Rebel Fired MANPADS[/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]


[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]
These rebel MANPADS attacks has forced the Syrian barrel bomb helicopters to release their bombs from high altitudes. This increased altitude reduces the aiming accuracy of these bombs and now their impact points are random. Currently, barrel bomb are not attacking point targets, but rather they are attacking large urban areas killing humans and damaging infrastructure such as building.

Over the last year their has been many false claims made by Syrian civilians as well as the press that barrel bombs have been deployed, when actually they were Russian conventional bombs. These false clams has given barrel bombs false praise by claiming their damage potential is greater then what it really is. Figure 2 shows photos of a HIP-8 helicopter dropping a barrel bomb relative to a Russian HIND Helicopter dropping a conventional Russian bomb.
[center][img]http://upload7.ir/images/72197345502373382693.jpg[/img][/center]
[center][b]Figure 2 Comparison Of HIP Mi-8 Barrel Bomb And HIND Conventional Bomb[/b][/center]


As stated, there has been many false claims in Syria that damage to Syrian cities has been caused by barrel bombs when their damage was actually caused by Russian conventional bombs that have significantly higher reliability then these DIY barrel bombs.
Barrel bombs designs that are observed though social media demonstrate that the Syrian government designed these barrel bombs with a fuse wick that requires a heat source (matches, cigarettes, cigars) to ignite. The Syrian government must of made a simple calculation that if the helicopter is at a known altitude (H) and the fuse wick burns at a known rate (b˙) then the time that it takes for the bomb to detonate is t=H/b˙. However, this simple equation that computes the time before detonation is false. Whoever designed these barrel bombs does not understand that their is a 10% burn rate error in the fuse wick. They also don’t understand that if the helicopter is not at the designed altitude it will effect the time of fall. In conjunction with these errors, they did not take into account the barrel size, mass, barrel bomb L/D ratio, tumble rate, drag effects, wind speed as well as the time it takes the soldier to deploy the bombs once its been lit inside the helicopter. All of these effects must be accounted for if a fuse wick is going to be used. Lets perform and example calculation that only considers the 10% error source of the fuse wick burn rate and assume all the other errors are zero or negligible. The Syrian government would first be required to compute the terminal velocity of the barrel bomb by using the equation V=2W/ρACd−−−−−−−−√. The terminal velocity accounts for the weight of the barrel bomb as well as the air density, average cross sectional area and drag of the barrel falling to the ground. A 500lb barrel bomb has a terminal velocity near 250f/s. Based on this calculation the time it takes the barrel to impact the ground is just 7000ft/250ft/s=28 seconds. So, the selected fuse wick that has a known burn rate is cut to a length which would burn for 28 seconds and detonate just when it impacts the ground. However, since their is a 10% burn rate error, there exists a probability that it could detonate early. If the burn rate is 10% to fast then the entire fuse wick would have completed its burn at 25.2 seconds. This means the warhead would detonate 700ft before hitting the ground. An example of these early bursts have been seen through many videos as shown in figure 3.
[center][img]http://upload7.ir/images/28901688762657430334.jpg[/img][/center]
[center][b]Figure 3 Barrel Bombs Detonate Early From Negative Errors[/b][/center]

These early bursts have been widely seen in Syria, which are caused from an accumulation of all the errors that potentially can exist. It is unknown how accurate the helicopter pilot attempts to keep the helicopter at the designed altitude are. It is also unclear if the Syrian barrel bomb builders understand drag effects and fuse wick errors and probability timing . Another example of another error is a Syrian Solider lighting and pushing barrel bombs out of the helicopter. This time must be accounted for and there is obviously no control of how the bomb is thrown out where time must be accounted for. A photo of a Syrian soldier pushing a barrel bomb out of a helicopter is shown in figure 4.
[center][img]http://upload7.ir/images/40799680629083785199.jpg[/img][/center]
[center][b]Figure 4 Description of Barrel Bombs On Syrian Helicopter Prior to Deployment[/b][/center]


These early barrel bomb weights are around 100-300lbs and are initiated from using fuse wicks. The soldier lights the fuse wick using a cigar because the wind effects would blow out a match or lighter. A close up of the fuse wicks is also shown where they should all have the same length. After the fuse wick is lit, the soldier quickly pushes the bomb from the helicopter. It is unclear how the Syrian designers of these bombs expected to time the fall exactly because their is clear evidence that many of these barrel bombs detonated early which is referred to a negative time delay.
The above analysis has only considered what could happen if the total time is less then the required time to detonate the barrel bombs given a ground impact. However, what would happen if the barrel bomb detonated late. Based on our example problem, the fuse wick would burn for a longer time then 28 seconds. If this occurs, then the barrel bomb would actually hit the ground or a building while the fuse wick is still burning. If this occurred, then based on video and photo evidence the barrel bomb would shatter upon ground impact or detonate if the fuse wick and bomb were not destroyed. There is clear evidence that barrel bombs can detonate given a positive delay time as shown in figure 5. This figure shows two potential out comes when the time delay is positive where the barrel bomb will either detonate or dud.
[center][img]http://upload7.ir/images/73084389836683239873.jpg[/img][/center]
[center][b]Figure 5 Comparison Of BB Detonating or Duding Based On Positive Time Delay[/b][/center]


The next step is to try to understand why there is and explosion in one case and not in another. One explanation, given all is equal is the shock wave though out the barrel bomb front endplate which holds the fuse wick. The stress of a steel case impacting concrete, grass or sand has been investigated. By using the shock Hugoniot equation P=ρcμ+ρsμ , the interface pressure between the ground surface and steel barrel bomb is calculated. The density of the material is ρwhile the bulk sound speed of the material is c where μis the particle velocity and s is the slope between shock velocity and material stress. These calculations show that the impact stress of a barrel bomb impacting concrete or rock is 3.5-5 times greater then if the barrel bomb impacted sand or dry soil. This increase in stress will cause the endplate that holds the fuse wick in place to fracture from the barrel bomb which disables the bomb to work.
Another important parameter that must be considered that would determine if positive time delayed barrel bombs can detonate is the impact point on the bomb. If a barrel bomb impacts directly on the fuse endplate, then their is increased probability that the bomb could fail. Through video analysis and ground inspection, these barrel bombs do not contain any fins to help control the fall of the bomb in providing stabilization. These bombs randomly tumble and the probability that these bombs could impact on the fuse/endplate is just 1/6 or 16.6%. If we assume a uniform random distribution of barrel bombs that contain negative and positive time delays, then just based on this fact the probability of a positive bomb impact is 50%. As of now, their is a 50% chance the bomb will not work and a 50% chance that the bomb will work. Now lets account for the ground and the impact position of the barrel to the ground. If the barrel bomb impacts concrete then the bomb will break apart and not work as intended. However, if the bomb impacts softer ground, there is probability as observed that these bombs will not break apart and function correctly. Our analysis assumes a 50% probability that the bomb will impact concrete/rock and a 50% probability that the bomb will impact sand or grass with light rubble. This means the probability that the bomb will function is just the probability that the time delay is positive or negative and the probability that the ground is hard or soft. This calculation is P=(1−0.5)(1−0.5)=0.25which means there is a 25% chance these fuse wick barrel bombs will work. So, it requires the Syrian Government to deploy 4 barrel bombs to get one bomb to detonate the way it’s intended. A description of two different barrel bombs is shown in figure 6. The barrel bomb on the left is one that impacted on a soft surface and the stress was not high enough to fracture off the fuse wick endplate, while the barrel bomb on the right shows it hit concrete and fractured off the fuse wick endplate.
[center][img]http://upload7.ir/images/54260432250269619778.jpg[/img][/center]
[center] [b]Figure 6 Comparison Between Barrel Bombs Impacts Soft And Hard Surfaces[/b][/center]


[b]Barrel Bomb Designs[/b]
The remains of these duded barrel bombs have been investigated to understand how the Syrian government has assembled them, and to determine how lethal these bombs can be.
It is evident from visual observations that there has been little to no quality control on these designs because of the many shapes and sizes that have been observed. There appears to be clear design trends that clearly show that Syrian personnel have no weapon design and effects training. Most Syrian barrel bombs contain many large steel components, such as cut rebar or large machine metal pieces such as large industrial bearings. These large metal chunks are inserted inside and mixed with the TNT explosive. The problem with this approach is when the explosive detonates, it’s using a lot of its energy to accelerate these large chucks of metal which reduces its blast effects as clearly seen in figure 7. These added steel materials reduce the blast effects by making the explosive use its energy to accelerate it.
[center][img]http://upload7.ir/images/52272305440571831611.jpg[/img][/center]
[center][b]Figure 7 Large Metallic Metal Components Added In Barrel Bomb Explosive Mixture[/b][/center]

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However, if these large metallic pieces were to impact a human then they would cause catastrophic incapacitation. However, there are mathematical equations that predict the optimum fragment size that is required to kill a person by taking into account probability theory and applying weapon design equations. The probability of incapacitating a person is computed with this equationP=1−e−a(mv3/2−b)n
Based on this equation, the optimum fragment mass can be computed to increase barrel bomb performance. The actual barrel bomb case would actually break apart into thousands of small fragments from natural fragmentation of the explosive shock wave interaction with the smooth case.
The fragment mass is m and the impact velocity is v where test derived constants are a, b and n. The velocity of the added metallic fragment is computed by using the Gurney equation which isV=2E−−−√C/M/(1+D/2L)(1+C/2M)−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−√
The 2E−−−√is the explosive Gurney constant which is around 2.4km/s for TNT. The explosive mass is C while the metallic mass plus the barrel bomb case is M. The parameters D and L are barrel bomb diameter and length respectively. The barrel bomb average case fragment can be computed by μ1/2=Bt5/6d1/3i(1+t/di) where B is a constant, t is the barrel bomb thickness and di is the explosive diameter. The estimated number of fragments from the barrel only is N(m)=M/2μwhere the number of fragments in a particular weight class is calculated by N(m)=M/2μe−(m/μ)1/2
These equations have been exercised pertaining to the Syrian Barrel bombs. The analysis clearly shows that these weapon are under designed and their lethality in urban areas can significantly increase by changing their approach and understanding weapon effects. Even though these embedded large chunks of metal are highly lethality against humans, the probability of being hit by one is extremely low. Given a 40ft stand off distance of a human from a barrel bomb explosion, their would be a 96% probability of death given a hit from one of these fragments, However, the probability if being hit from these chunks of metal is only 3% which gives a total probability if incapacitation of 2.8%. An example calculation is shown in figure 8.
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[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b] Figure 8 Barrel Bomb Probability of Incapacitation and Probability Equations[/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]

[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]The blast effects have been investigated as well where the pressure-impulse to incapacitate a human has been calculated. The blast damage is directly related to the amount of explosive as well as the metal casing surrounding it. The lethal blast radius has been calculated, but it not reported in this version of the report.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left][b]Changing Barrel Bomb Technology[/b]
There are several significant changes that have been observed in Syrian barrel bomb technology. It is evident from these changes that the military determined they were not getting explosive detonations on the ground and their bombs were not working. The Syrian government has switched from using fuse wick fuses to impact fuses. As stated earlier, these fuse wicks have minimal chance of working because of their time delay errors. However, the addition of impact fuses accounts for all the errors that are associated with fuse wicks. These new impacts fuses are clearly DIY and in conjunction with these new fuse concepts, the sizes of the barrel bombs has significantly increased. Today’s Syrian barrel bomb weights can exceed over 2000lbs of TNT making them highly lethal given a high order explosive detonation in urban areas. A description of a recovered barrel bomb with these new design features is shown in figure 9.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
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[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b]Figure 9 Newer Barrel Bombs Designed With DIY Impact Fuses[/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]


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These impact fuses were created using detonation cord to ignite the bulk TNT explosive charge. It is unclear what the exact reliability of these fuses are and how well they actually work. However, it is expected that the Syrian builders have performed some testing of this device to have enough confidence that it will work given that the barrel impacts the ground on the fuse. In order for these new bombs to work they must impact on the fuse which means they must impact on the front of the barrel. The only way to accomplish this is to add fins to stabilize the bomb so it won’t tumble as it falls to the ground.
This recovered barrel bomb did not operate and detonate correctly because the fins appear to be too small. The explosive weight of this bomb is near 2000lbs while small fins have been attached to the middle of the bomb. Figure 10 is a picture of the small fins that were welded to the center of the bomb. A picture of a typical Russian bomb is shown which clearly shows these bombs are designed with fins in the back of the bomb and not in the middle. It has been concluded with high confidence that this massive bomb still tumbles and the probability of falling on the impact fuse is random. It appears the fins are designed too small and the barrel bomb is randomly tumbling to the ground. If we assume the probability of the fuse working correctly is 75% and the cylindrical barrel bomb has 6 sides, then given random tumbling, the probability of success is 1/6 or 16.6% given 100% reliability of the fuse. However, if the DIY fuse has a reliability near 75%, then the probability of success is 12%.
[center][img]http://upload7.ir/images/52291566410918805618.jpg[/img][/center][/left][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b]Figure 10 Syrian Barrel Bomb With Small Fins Attached To The Middle[/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]


[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]It appears the Syrian builders have discovered this problem with their fins and their inability to generate a stable and aligned bomb. There is clear evidence that the Syrians have moved these fins from the middle of the bomb to the aft end, which is the design norm of all the gravity bombs in the world. Figure 11 shows a large barrel bomb just after it has been deployed.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
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[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b]Figure 11 Large Barrel Bomb Deployment Showing Initial tumbling Of Weapon[/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]


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These new design features have increased the probability that the barrel bomb will fall aligned with stable flight and impact the fuse. We have already estimated that the fuse has a 75% chance of working given an impact. Based on these fins relative to known world bombs, it appears that the stability of the bomb will increase but it is still unclear that the fins are large enough and far enough to the back of the bomb to provide good stability. A conservative estimate of the fin performance based on Russian/US fins relative to the Syrian barrel bombs is 50%. This estimate is based on analyzing Russian bombs of similar weight, and measuring their fin distance and diameter relative to the recovered barrel bombs. Given these 2 performance probabilities, the probability that these new Syrian barrel bombs will work correctly is 37.5%.
[b]Barrel Bomb Design Variations[/b]
There has been several recovered barrel bombs that are designed differently compared to most traditional barrel bombs. Some of these barrel bombs contain smaller warheads that are embedded within the explosive to ignite the much larger barrel bomb explosive. This design technique uses the small warhead as a booster, which is really not required. An example of this is shown in figure 12.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
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[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b]Figure 12 Syrian Barrel Bomb Using Small Warhead As Booster[/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]

[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]The explosive has appeared to be soaked in oil which would give the same features as ANFO. ANFO is an explosive mixture which contains some small percentage of oil. This oil actually reduces the explosive detonation velocity which reduces the blast and fragment acceleration power of the explosive. This bomb has an impact fuse, but the most disturbing observation is it has no fins. Without fins, this bombs reliability is very low and the odds of working are small. In fact, all objects that fly through the air eventually turn and fly with the side with its greatest presented area. If this rule of thumb is applied, this bomb will never rotate and align its front surface to the ground. The highest probability of the side with the fuse impacting is just 1/6 or 16.6% which assumes their is equal chance of any side impact. Now, if the reliability of the fuse is 75%, then the probability that the barrel bomb will function is 12.4%.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]The Syrian government over the last year has significantly increased their barrel bomb sizes from hundreds of pounds of explosive to 2000 pounds of explosive. However, there is strong evidence that these weights are larger then this. Their exists a video that shows Syrian military throwing barrel bombs from helicopter with a large fuel auxiliary tank. This video shows to the right a large yellow tank which is the helicopter’s internal fuel auxiliary tank. This tank can contain over 960 litres of fuel or if it was converted to a high explosive barrel bomb it would contain around 3000-3500lbs of explosive as shown in figure 13.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
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[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b]Figure 13 Syrian Military Using Helicopter Fuel Auxiliary Fuel Tank As Barrel Bomb[/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]


[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]With the need for larger barrel bombs and the Syrian military need for larger explosions there is reason to believe that the military could be using these auxiliary fuel tanks as Fuel Air Explosives(FAE). There is no clear evidence of the military converting these fuel tanks to FAE’S but their appears to be very large unexplainable explosions in Syria that that are clearly made from unknown FAE weapons. If the military made these tanks into FAE’S and they were able to master the weaponization of deploying fuel and igniting it, these tanks would generate explosions greater then 15 tone TNT equivalent weights. One of these unexplainable explosions that has not been attributed to ground fuel explosions, fuel or high explosive depots or anything but a dropped bomb is shown in figure 14. This unexplainable explosion distinctly shows that a FAE or fuel weapon was used in Syria that generated a fireball cloud diameter near 2000ft. The TNT equivalent yield is estimated from the height of the dust cloud where many yield equations have been derived for nuclear and large explosive events in the 1960′s. This explosion did not persist like known explosions that were started from fuel depots or fuel lines from conventional bombing. This explosion occurred and persisted for about 120 seconds and then disconnected from the ground. Also, there have been several barrel bombs that have been observed from helicopters that appear to have platforms that are attached to wheel tracks. These bombs would weigh over 3000lbs and would require some sled system to move it on and off the helicopter.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
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[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b]Figure 14 Potential Syrian Derived Weapon Which Supports Unexplainable Explosions[/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]


[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]his explosion would generate significant damage to all buildings within a 600ft diameter. The analysis assumed the fuel is ethylene oxide which has and energy content of 28000J/g while TNT explosive is around 4180J/g. This large increase in energy is another reason why the Syrian military may be investigating weaponizing auxiliary fuel tanks into FAE weapons. It is known that Syria possess Russian ODAB 500 FAE weapons that only have a TNT equivalent yield of 1 tonne.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left][b]Aleppo barrel Bombs Attacks[/b]
It was reported that Syrian government aircraft dumped barrels packaged with explosives on at least four opposition-held neighbourhoods of Aleppo on Dec 18, 2013. This would be the fourth day of increased air strikes on this contested northern city. It appears this air campaign killed more than 100 people in the first three days alone. A map of the potential barrel bombings is shown in figure 15. The damage radius of these bombs looks very large from observing videos of the explosions. In fact, it is still unclear if all 11 of these explosions is solely from barrel bombs. The Syrian people have a history of calling all bombs dropped from helicopters barrel bombs, which is false. Their has been many reports that all these attacks are specifically barrel bombs but given the probability of success, this seems questionable and further analysis is requited. However, lets assume all 11 explosions were from barrel bombs and lets also assume that all 11 barrel bombs possessed fuse wicks. Since the probability of a fuse wick barrel bomb working is 25%, it would require around 88 barrel bomb drops to achieve 11 successful explosions based on the probability equation of P=1−(1−Pk/h)n[/left][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]The single shot probability of success is 0.25 and given a 90% probability requirement it would take 88 fuse wick barrel bombs which appears as and unrealistic scenario where Russian bombs would be mixed in. We know that the Syrians have developed or increased their capability by adding impact fuses to account for the timing errors of the fuse wicks. Let’s assume that the barrel bombs contain impact fuses but do not contain fins that are able to stabilize the bombs for a successful impact on the fuse. The single shot probability of these barrel bombs with is 12%. This means that the Syrian military would have to drop near 187 barrel bombs to obtain 11 explosions. This large number of barrel bomb does not appear realistic as well as the Syrian military using no or very small fins in the middle of the bomb.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
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[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b]Figure 15 Aleppo Bomb Impact Points From December 2013 Attacks [/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]


[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]The next calculation will consider the most advanced barrel bombs that is believed they have. The single shot bomb probability of success is 37.5% which means it would require 5 bombs to achieve one successful explosion. The total number of bombs that the Syrian military would have to drop to obtain 11 explosions is 55. It is unknown how many helicopters were used in these bombings, but if the capacity of a HIP helicopter is considered, then each helicopter could only hold around 3-4 bombs of 1000lb size. A single video was found of a very large barrel bomb that appeared on the internet December 21, 2013. It is believed this barrel bomb could have been used in the Aleppo attacks. Figure 16 shows this barrel bomb and it specifically shows that this bomb has an explosive yield of 1500-2000lbs.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
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[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b]Figure 16 Large Barrel Bomb Filmed and appears on Internet On Dec 21, 2013[/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]


[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]However, if the military has mastered the fuel air explosive dispersal technique, then this bomb would have a yield of 6 tonne TNT equivalent weight. The damage on the ground strongly supports that very large bombs were used to generate the amount of damage that is seen in the many videos. Another key observation of the barrel bomb is the fins are on the back of the bomb, and not in the middle. It appears that this bomb concept has a good chance to be aligned and stable to allow for a lethal fuse impact. A closer look at the barrel bomb from the December 21 attack is shown in figure 17.[/left][/size][/font][/color]
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[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][center][b]Figure 17 Close Up Of Barrel Bomb From Video[/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]


[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left][b]Summary[/b][/left][/size][/font][/color]
[color=#555555][font='Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif][size=3][left]It is unknown how many bombs in Aleppo were DIY barrel bombs and how many were Russian conventional bombs. If we estimate that their were 3 helicopters used in this campaign and each helicopter contained three 2000lb barrel bombs, then based on each helicopter performing 2 separate missions and estimate can be made if its feasible that all the explosions in Aleppo were from barrel bombs. The calculations show that each day their were 18 barrel bombs dropped with only 3.6 explosions per day. After 3 days of bombing, the total number of barrel bombs dropped is 54 which correlates with the 55 barrel bombs required that must be deployed to achieve 11 explosions. It appears possible that all the attacks in Aleppo could have been DIY barrel bombs because these attacks occurred over 3-4 days where it is clearly possible that over these days 55 barrel bombs could have been dropped with their new and enhanced designs. The video analysis of the overall damage strongly supports that very large barrel bombs were used.[/left][/size][/font][/color]