post sanctions iran, next Japan/Germany ?

[senaps 12,003]

[left]The lightning advance of the group now calling itself the Islamic Caliphate (formerly known as Islamic State in Iraq and Levant) throughout the north and eastern portions of Iraq has rattled governments across the region and beyond. [b]For the first time in recent memory, there is the possibility that a terrorist group could end up controlling the geographical heart of the Middle East, home to one of the world's largest hydrocarbon reserves.

Quite paradoxically, such a worrying prospect has pushed Tehran and Washington closer to each other, as the two powers contemplate a modus vivendi to contain the menace and aid the flailing Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki-led government in Baghdad, which has been criticised for its lack of inclusive governance and increasingly authoritarian tendencies.

[b]Given their shared strategic concern over the rapid proliferation of violent groups such as the Islamic Caliphate, there is a growing conversation about the possibility of a tactical alliance between the West and Iran - paving the way for a fundamental reconfiguration in the regional balance of power.

Above all, however, the greater issue at hand is the gradual re-emergence of Iran, currently among the world's 20 largest economies, as a serious international power, after years of geopolitical isolation and bitter ideological competition with the West. And it is the combination of pragmatism and resilience that underpins Iran's increasingly successful bid for (retaking) a pride of place among the world's leading nations.

Beyond Deng and Gorbachev

After his landslide victory in mid-2013, [b]when tens of millions of Iranians unequivocally voted for greater pragmatism and moderation in the country's domestic and foreign policies, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani assembled one of the most capable governments in Iranian [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]HISTORY[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url].[*******Red] In fact, his cabinet boasts more American PhDs than the White House.[/COLOR] Today, Rouhani oversees a highly professional, technocratic government, with an intimate understanding of not only international affairs, but also the US political system and its vagaries.

A year into office, the Rouhani administration has not only addressed pressing macroeconomic issues, particularly an explosive inflation and a collapsing domestic [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]CURRENCY[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url], but it has also managed to sustain a series of high-stakes negotiations with world powers to resolve a decade-long crisis over Iran's nuclear programme. Obviously, critics at home and abroad have sought to derail the Rouhani administration's efforts to negotiate a permanent settlement of the Iranian nuclear crisis with Western powers, especially Washington.

A year into his office, the Rouhani administration has not only addressed pressing macroeconomic issues, particularly an explosive inflation and a collapsing domestic [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]CURRENCY[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url], but it has also managed to sustain a series of high-stakes negotiations with the world powers to resolve a decade-long crisis over Iran's nuclear programme.


There is a high possibility that the ongoing negotiations will be extended beyond the July deadline, as Iran and world powers enter the final stages of negotiating a long-term nuclear agreement, which would theoretically allow Tehran to retain a measure of domestic enrichment capability in return for an end to Western sanctions against Iran's financial and hydrocarbon sectors.

Nonetheless, one can't deny that for the first time in decades, [b]there is a real possibility of more normalised relations between Tehran and the West, potentially sparking a huge influx of Western [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]INVESTMENT[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url] and technology into the country.

As the current head of the Iranian government, President Rouhani has managed to carefully navigate Iran's multi-polar domestic power structure. Emphasising regime stability and preservation, he has convinced leading conservatives to support his often contentious diplomatic overtures towards the West. Meanwhile, he managed to attract the support of leading pragmatists and reformists by constantly emphasising his advocacy for greater socio-political freedom, economic revival, and political engagement with the wider world.

In many ways, Rouhani represents one of the most consequential pragmatists in the opening decades of the 21st century.

Far from emulating the Soviet Union's President Mikhail Gorbachev, whose political reforms precipitated the collapse of the Soviet Union, and China's Deng Xiaoping, who constantly pushed for economic liberalisation at the expense of political freedom, Rouhani is laying the foundations of an Iran that is economically dynamic, politically vibrant, and geopolitically powerful.

The lion awakens

Long dismissed as one of the weakest teams in this year's World Cup, the Iranian football team, also known as Team Melli, had to overcome a pernicious combination of financial difficulties and administrative nightmares to prepare for the likes of Argentina. [b]Due to Western sanctions, which prevented Tehran from collecting [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]FUNDS[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url] from international sponsors, Iran could barely organise a decent preparatory campaign ahead of the World Cup tournament. But against all odds, they eventually managed to win the respect of millions of fans across the world, cementing Team Melli's reputation as one of the most powerful Asian teams in recent history.

One could argue that initial misperceptions vis-a-vis Team Melli somehow mirror the broader misunderstanding of Iran as a country, and its achievements in recent decades. The West has long sought to dismiss Iran as a rogue nation, with limited human capital and underdeveloped technological and scientific capabilities. Given Iran's dependence on hydrocarbon exports, Western powers sought to change Iran's strategic by imposing restrictions on Iran's ability to conduct [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]INTERNATIONAL TRADE[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url] and finance its domestic development. Without a question, the sanctions have been devastating, severely undermining Iran's macroeconomic conditions as well as its access to basic necessities such as food and medicine.

But a combination of [u]resilience[/u] and [u]increasing pragmatism[/u] has allowed Iran to not only emerge as a sporting powerhouse, especially in Asia, but, more importantly, as one of the most dynamic countries in the developing world. [b]Today, Iran stands among leading countries in cutting-edge sciences such as [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]STEM CELL[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url] research and nanotechnology.

As the Middle East's leading scientific power, [b]Iran has managed to attain growing self-sufficiency in terms of space and nuclear technology, while leading Iranian universities have been producing among the best engineers in the world. After decades of rural development and pro-active developmental policies, Iran is among the leading Asian countries in terms of human development index, while boasting among the largest steel and automobile manufacturing bases in the developing world.

[b]Overall, the [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]MAIN[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url] strength of the Rouhani administration is its profound realisation of the necessity to launch a creative diplomatic approach to remove artificial political constraints, which have prevented the full flowering of the immense potential of the Iranian [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]PEOPLE[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url] and the efficient utilisation of the country's immense hydrocarbon wealth.

As we inch closer to a post-sanctions Iran, we shouldn't be surprised to hear more leading global [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]FINANCIAL[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url] institutions describing the country as one of the most promising economies of the 21st century - and perhaps the next China.

Richard Javad Heydarian is a specialist in Asian geopolitical/economic affairs and author of "How Capitalism Failed the Arab World: The Economic Roots and Precarious Future of the Middle East Uprisings".

The views expressed in this [url="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1736196&highlight=#"]ARTICLE[img]http://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png[/img][/url] are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.[/b][/b][/b][/b][/b][/b][/b][/b][/left]



[left]http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/06/post-sanctions-iran-next-china-201463083025942167.html[/left]



[left]some comment's on it:
.[/left]
[quote]

[left]I know Iranians are Persians and NOT Arabs, so they gave a distinct culture from The Arabs.

And I know Iran has achieved a fairly respectable(albeit with some hilarious failures) level of enforced domestic/insular innovation from isolation and austerity.

But does Iran possess the necessary cultural aspects of Germany and Japan to improve the chances of a future economic powerhouse likelihood?

I think Iran probably has the cultural foundation for success, but there's a need for significant political, economic, and judicial reform in order for a Farsi franchise of Monopoly to catch on.

IRGC control of the biggest chunk of the economy, corruption, and judicial inconsistency could stand reform[/left]
[/quote]

[quote]I think post Mullah Iran, however this may happen, will first go through a recession.
There's lots of very inefficient quasi-state or private monopoly industry that is simply not competitive.
There will be lots of jobs lost.
However, Iran also has the advantages stated above, so after a few years Iran should become a major industrial nation, at least on regional level.

The situation might be comparable with Poland or the Czech Republic after 1990[/quote]

[quote]I'd agree with the article insofar as iran is certainly the country with the most development potential in the middle east with regards to its technology base,demographics, natural ressources educational levels.

still it all comes down to governance. as long as iran is asphyxiated internally by IRGC cronyism and and internationally by non compliance with the nuclear restrictions it will remain potential not actual reality.

if those barriers are overcome iran could be a major industrial player akin to turkey. its a big if though[/quote]

[senaps 12,003]

last time i checked, there were plenty of english speakers in this forum...that's why i copied it as it is so we could have a better talking on it! )) but still no comments why?

اخرین باری که چک کردم، کلی انگلیسی بلد اینجا داشتیم!...واسه همینم همونجوری انگلیسی کپیش کردم اینجا که بتونیم در موردش حرف بزنیم... ولی هنوز هیچکس نظری نداره چرا؟

[blender 1,086]

[quote name='senaps' timestamp='1405770381' post='394326']
last time i checked, there were plenty of english speakers in this forum...that's why i copied it as it is so we could have a better talking on it! )) but still no comments why?

اخرین باری که چک کردم، کلی انگلیسی بلد اینجا داشتیم!...واسه همینم همونجوری انگلیسی کپیش کردم اینجا که بتونیم در موردش حرف بزنیم... ولی هنوز هیچکس نظری نداره چرا؟
[/quote]

چون چرت و پرت نوشته .
آمریکا می خواد علاوه بر تقویت داعش ، ایران رو هم به وضع لیبی و عراق بکشونه و کلا خلع سلاح و بعدش محاصره ی اقتصادی کنه ( این مذاکرات هسته ای اخیر نیت آمریکا رو کاملا آشکار کرده )

بعد طرف می گه این موضوع ایران و آمریکا رو نزدیک کرده .... اگه منظورش یک عده ی خاص در ایران باشند که باید بگم این ها برای داشتن روابط عاشق و معشوقی با آمریکا نیازی به بهانه ندارند و همیشه مست می عشق آمریکا هستند .

[senaps 12,003]

این قسمت اول نوشته هست!!
کلیت حرفش اینه که ایران بعد از تحریم ها، با توجه به نرخ بسیار بالای باسواد ها و مهندسینش، انفجار صنعتی شدن رو تجربه میکنه و تبدیل میشه به کشوری مثل المان یا ژاپن یا کره جنوبی و تایوان...


داره چندین و چند مثال میزنه و میگه مردم با روی کار اوردن دولت روحانی، روح تازه‌ای دمیدن و میخوان کار بکنن و کشورشون رو بسازن و تلاش بکنن و دلیل فعالیت ها و تلاش های هسته‌ای و فضایشون هم همینه...

به نظرم تحلیل جالبی میاد به صورت کلی! یعنی کاریه که هر ملت عاقلی باید انجام بده....

ولی حیف که ما ایرانی هستیم و جو گیر و خیلی سریع یادمون میره و خیلی سریع فراموش میکنیم که منافع ملی، منافع شخصی رو به دنبال داره ولی منافع شخصی منافع ملی رو نمیاره

[blender 1,086]

[quote]
کلیت حرفش اینه که ایران بعد از تحریم ها، با توجه به نرخ بسیار بالای باسواد ها و مهندسینش، انفجار صنعتی شدن رو تجربه میکنه و تبدیل میشه به کشوری مثل المان یا ژاپن یا کره جنوبی و تایوان...
[/quote]

اینم یکی دیگه از چرندیاتش هست ...
توی کشوری که مردم می گند : « تکنولوژی برای چیمون هست ، نون می خوایم »
توی کشوری که دزدی و دلالی و ندادن مالیات و قانون شکنی بشه زرنگی

این چیزها اتفاق نمی افته ...

[patriot1979 1,836]

[left]The tenacious strain is the key to comprehension of Iranian-side challenge: the nuclear dispute continues to exist like a proxy for the more core political hot debate between the states and Iran (which is a revolutionary state). The slightly complicated situation of the nuclear issue within Iran, on the other hand, has put Oval office in kind of limbo, and as a matter of fact, Washington’s decision-making arrays have steadily paced back and forth between carrot/stick- integration into what US calls international community, at one end, to bawdy military threat and clear push for regime change, at the very other. The chances (and hopes) are now between these extreme tips lies sort of third alternative of settlement. To the United States of America, [b]if[/b] diplomatic mingling is country’s major approach toward Iran, agreement has then been its immediate option when amalgamating is out of its reach in the foreseeable future. Here’s the catch; Iran needs to keep a close watch on a 21st century-variant version of (George Frost) Kennan’s containment strategy which has been sticking around, dissociating the nuclear thing from the long-lasting (say, utopian) aim of regime change in Iran and more important, significantly leaning on domestic social forces like proxy guys of a societal revolt. Getting along with this kind of nuclear time-line seems like the most both guys have got out of a tough set of cards, and probably takes a hefty tactics of real deal at least in bigger West’s deeds but (definitely) not in their big words.[/left]

[death 4,593]

جالا منو روزه گرفته حال ندارم بخونم ببینم چی نوشتی حتی حال ندارم انگلیسی جواب بدم همینقدر بگم غربی ها اصلا احمق نیستن ! قرار تحریم ها تو یه بازه 20 ساله برداشته بشه تا جلوی هر گونه جهش اقتصادی ایران گرفته بشه خیالتون راحت
به قول دوست یهودی زاده بیخدا فعلی من الله توفیق

[Generalmohammad 3,178]

[quote]جالا منو روزه گرفته حال ندارم بخونم ببینم چی نوشتی حتی حال ندارم انگلیسی جواب بدم[/quote]

تا دیروز وقتی سلام میکردی میگفت " I am window " امروز چه کلاس هم میزاره

[haman10 966]

[left]so let me get this straight :[/left]

[left]no way in hell iran and US are going to reconcile ! this is just wishful thinking of some idiots back in US who actually try to look open minded .[/left]

[left]the reality is so much different . iran and US are so freakishly different in culture , politics and policies[/left]

[left]we have no crossing intersts . i do believe that even in iraq we have a widely separated set of interests[/left]

[left]things are not as cool as the article mentions [/left]

[death 4,593]

[quote name='Generalmohammad' timestamp='1405788044' post='394387']
تا دیروز وقتی سلام میکردی میگفت " I am window " امروز چه کلاس هم میزاره
[/quote]
دیگه چی کار کنیم دیگه :دی
امروز سر ظهر مجبور شدم برم جایی هوای شرجی شمال با روزه داری من عجین شد نتیجه هم این شد که تا افطار شبیه جنازه بیفتم یه گوشه شبیه مرده ها حالا هم سیرم آخر شب میخونم چی نوشته

حالا فی المجلس چند تا منفی بدم!

[haman10 966]

[quote name='death' timestamp='1405788280' post='394389']
حالا فی المجلس چند تا منفی بدم!
[/quote]

ممنون !!

[death 4,593]

[quote name='haman10' timestamp='1405788752' post='394391']
ممنون !!
[/quote]
خواهش میکنم البته شما لیاقت بیشترش رو دارید بنده وسعم محدوده
به بزرگواری خودتون ببخشید

[senaps 12,003]

البته اجباری نیست که دوستان حتمی انگلیسی صحبت بکنن!! )
همین فارسی هم چت کنیم و صحبت کنیم در خصوصش درسته....
اون سه کامنت، کامنت انگلیسی زبان های امریکایی روی این مطلب هستش!

[blender 1,086]

[quote name='senaps' timestamp='1405789699' post='394401']
البته اجباری نیست که دوستان حتمی انگلیسی صحبت بکنن!! )
همین فارسی هم چت کنیم و صحبت کنیم در خصوصش درسته....
اون سه کامنت، کامنت انگلیسی زبان های امریکایی روی این مطلب هستش!
[/quote]

شما هم حرف خودت رو از جانب اون کامنت ها زدی .
مرد باش ، یک راست بیا خودت بگوش .

[senaps 12,003]

من حرف خودم اینه :

یه عده توی مملکت هستن که به هیچ عنوان نمی‌خوان کشور پیشرفت بکنه...
پولشون و ادامه‌ی قدرتشون در اینه که مملکت ضعیف و وابسته باشه....
هر بار که برای کشور مشکلی پیش میاد، حتی یک گرم از میوه ها و غذاهای رنگین سفره‌ی اونها کم نمیشه، امنیت هیچ‌کدومشون به خطر نمی‌افته و اصلا گرونی و مشکلات مربوطه رو حس هم نمیکنن...

اونها مردم مسلمونی که یه روزی با هم سر اینکه کدومشون خودش رو فدای گردان بکنه دعوا میکردن...یه روزی این مردم برای اینکه کدومشون شهید بشه و کدوم برگرده با هم دعوا میکردن... امروز همون مردم رو اون یه عده‌ای که عرض کردم، به جایی رسوندن که سر همدیگه رو می‌برن و گوشت هم رو میخورن...

سالانه هزاران نخبه‌ی کشور فرار میکنن... سالانه هزاران کارگر و بی‌سواد از مملکت فرار میکنن.... سالانه، هر کسی که می‌تونه از کشور فرار میکنه و تنها کسانی باقی می‌مونن که نمی‌تونن فرار بکنن و کسانی که دارن از این وضعیت سود می‌برن...

مملکت رسما داره تبدیل به کره‌ی شمالی میشه!! اخباری که پخش میشه 180 درجه با واقعیت فاصله داره! صنعت و تولیدات توی نهایتا 15-20 سال پیش باقی مونده...
از یکی از پیشرفته ترین کشورهای اسیا در طول 30 سال تبدیل شدیم به یکی از عقب مونده ترین کشورهای دنیا و هنوز داریم زیر ساخت ها رو مصرف میکنیم تا تموم بشن....زیاد نمونده به روزایی که دیگه نفت و گازی برای فروش نداریم و اونوقته که باید خر سواری بکنیم چون خودمون هیچی نداریم...

کشور خیلی راحت...خیلی خیلی راحت میتونه تبدیل به یه امپراطوری توی منطقه بشه... ما هم منابع داریم، هم امکانات داریم هم طبیعت داریم و هم تاریخ غنی برای بهره گیری در صنعت سینما و تلویزیون و بازی های کامپیوتری... طبیعتی عالی و حتی گاهی بکر برای گردشگری و همچنین باستانی ....

همه‌ی اینها عواملی هستش که روی یه دونه‌اش یه کشور میچرخه و ما همه‌ی اینها رو داریم، ولی به دلیل مسئولین بی‌سواد و عقب مونده و دزد، عقب موندیم...

وضعیت کشور کوچیکترین ارتباطی با تحریم ها نداره چون در همین زمان تحریم ها، چند ده هزار میلیارد تومن پول هاپولی شده.... پولی که میشه باهاش یه مملکت رو از صفر ساخت و اباد کرد رو ما ریختیم تو حلق چند ده نفر....